COVID-19: Third wave unlikely to be as severe as the second wave, says new study

NEW DELHI—A new study conducted by the Indian Council of medical Research in collaboration with the Imperial College of London says that the possible third wave of the COID-19 may not be as severe as the second wave.

The study titled “Plausibility of a third wave of COVID-19 in India: M mathematical modeling based analysis” says that the immune-mediated mechanisms are unlikely to drive a severe third wave if acting on their own unless such it leads to a complete loss of protection among those previously exposed.

The study called for rapid scale-up of vaccination efforts which it said “could play an important role in mitigating these and future waves of the disease”.

“This study demonstrates plausible mechanisms by which a substantial third wave could occur, while also illustrating that it is unlikely for any such resurgence to be as large as the second wave,” the study said.

It added, “Model projections are, however, subject to several uncertainties, and it remains important to scale up vaccination coverage to mitigate against any eventuality. Preparedness planning for any potential future wave will benefit by drawing upon the projected numbers based on the present modelling exercise.”

Covid-19 has claimed more than 394,000 lives in India while also infecting more than 30 millions so far. Of them, 29.1 million has got recovered.